Toplines: August 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters in North Carolina (2024)

Results of a North Carolina New York Times/Siena College poll conducted among 655 registered voters from Aug. 9 to 14, 2024.

All states: registered voters | likely electorate
Arizona: toplines | registered voters | likely electorate
Georgia: toplines | registered voters | likely electorate
Nevada: toplines | registered voters | likely electorate
North Carolina: toplines | registered voters | likely electorate

Thinking ahead to the presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

655

Almost certain

61%

Very likely

28%

Somewhat likely

5%

Not very likely

1%

Not at all likely

3%

[VOLUNTEERED] Already voted

0%

[VOLUNTEERED] Don't know/Refused

2%

(Combined presidential ballot, includes leaners to major-party candidates) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

655

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

49%

Donald Trump, the Republican

46%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

5%

(Combined presidential ballot, includes leaners to third-party candidates) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

655

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

45%

Donald Trump, the Republican

42%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the third-party candidate

5%

Jill Stein [stine], the Green Party candidate

2%

[VOL] Cornel West, the third-party candidate

0%

Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate

1%

[VOL] Another candidate (specify)

0%

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

<1%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

(Initial ask, without leaners) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

[READ LIST]

[IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

655

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

45%

Donald Trump, the Republican

41%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the third-party candidate

5%

Jill Stein [stine], the Green Party candidate

2%

[VOL] Cornel West, the third-party candidate

0%

Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate

<1%

[VOL] Another candidate (specify)

<1%

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

1%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

5%

(Leaners, if no candidate selected in initial multi-candidate question) If you had to decide today, would you lean more toward:

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

42

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

13%

Donald Trump, the Republican

13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the third-party candidate

6%

Jill Stein [stine], the Green Party candidate

2%

[VOL] Cornel West, the third-party candidate

0%

Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate

3%

[VOL] Another candidate (specify)

0%

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

14%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

49%

(If candidate selected, including third-party candidates) Are you definitely or probably going to vote for [CANDIDATE SELECTED]?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

629

Definitely

79%

Probably

19%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

(Leaners, if not supporting Trump or Harris in previous multi-candidate questions) If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward:

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

75

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

32%

Donald Trump, the Republican

30%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

38%

(Ask only in NC) If this year’s general election for North Carolina governor were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for?

[READ LIST]

[IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

655

Josh Stein, the Democrat

48%

Mark Robinson, the Republican

38%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

14%

(Responses reclassified by age group) In what year were you born?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

655

18-29

18%

30-44

22%

45-64

31%

65+

25%

Refused

3%

What is the highest educational level that you have completed?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

655

Grade school

2%

High school

27%

Vocational or trade school

3%

Some college, no degree

19%

Associate’s degree

10%

Bachelor's degree

24%

Graduate or professional degree

14%

[VOL] Refused

<.5%

Would you consider yourself:

[READ LIST]

[IF biracial or multi racial ask: What races would that be?]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

655

White

66%

Hispanic or Latino

5%

Black or African American

18%

Asian

2%

American Indian or Alaska Native

1%

Middle Eastern or North African

<.5%

Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander

<1%

[VOL] Some other race (specify)

1%

[VOL] More than one race

3%

[VOL] Refused

3%

Note: Responses to questions after this point are reported only for respondents who completed the entire questionnaire.

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Democrat

31%

Republican

29%

Independent

33%

Another party

3%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

(If independent, another party or not sure) And as of today, do you lean more to:

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

227

The Democratic Party

43%

The Republican Party

38%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

19%

Combined: Party identification and leaners

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

The Democratic Party

48%

The Republican Party

44%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

7%

Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Donald Trump

40%

Joe Biden

40%

I did not vote

16%

[VOL] Someone else

2%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

(Excluding "I did not vote") Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

491

Donald Trump

47%

Joe Biden

48%

[VOL] Someone else

2%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Strongly approve

19%

Somewhat approve

26%

Somewhat disapprove

11%

Strongly disapprove

43%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following.

Donald Trump

[IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?]

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Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very favorable

30%

Somewhat favorable

16%

Somewhat unfavorable

8%

Very unfavorable

45%

[VOL] Have not heard of

0%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris

[IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very favorable

30%

Somewhat favorable

21%

Somewhat unfavorable

8%

Very unfavorable

37%

[VOL] Have not heard of

<1%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

JD Vance

[IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very favorable

18%

Somewhat favorable

17%

Somewhat unfavorable

10%

Very unfavorable

35%

[VOL] Have not heard of

8%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

11%

Tim Walz [walls]

[IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very favorable

26%

Somewhat favorable

16%

Somewhat unfavorable

11%

Very unfavorable

20%

[VOL] Have not heard of

14%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

12%

How much attention are you paying to the upcoming presidential election?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

A lot

61%

Some

29%

Not much

8%

None at all

3%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

0%

And when it comes to the November election, would you say you’re very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic about voting, not very enthusiastic about voting or not at all enthusiastic about voting?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very enthusiastic

59%

Somewhat enthusiastic

25%

Not very enthusiastic

10%

Not at all enthusiastic

5%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

<.5%

In general, how satisfied are you with your choice of candidates in this fall’s presidential election?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very satisfied

40%

Somewhat satisfied

37%

Not too satisfied

12%

Not at all satisfied

9%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

Do you think Donald Trump is too conservative, not conservative enough, or not too far either way?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Too conservative

38%

Not conservative enough

8%

Not too far either way

42%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

12%

Do you think Kamala Harris is too liberal or progressive, not liberal or progressive enough, or not too far either way?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Too liberal or progressive

42%

Not liberal or progressive enough

8%

Not too far either way

44%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

6%

If Donald Trump won the election, do you think nothing would change, there would be minor changes to how things work, there would be major changes to how things work, or he would tear down the system completely?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Nothing would change

1%

Minor changes to how things work

16%

Major changes to how things work

47%

He would tear down the system completely

35%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

(If Trump major/minor change or tear down the system) Do you think the changes that Donald Trump would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

IF GOOD/BAD: Is that very or somewhat?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very good for the country

33%

Somewhat good for the country

10%

Somewhat bad for the country

6%

Very bad for the country

39%

Neither good nor bad

9%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

[PREVIOUSLY] Nothing would change

1%

[PREVIOUSLY] Don’t know/Refused

<1%

(Without combination) (If Trump major/minor change or tear down the system) Do you think the changes that Donald Trump would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

IF GOOD/BAD: Is that very or somewhat?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

548

Very good for the country

33%

Somewhat good for the country

10%

Somewhat bad for the country

6%

Very bad for the country

40%

Neither good nor bad

9%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

If Kamala Harris won the election, do you think nothing would change, there would be minor changes to how things work, there would be major changes to how things work, or she would tear down the system completely?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Nothing would change

12%

Minor changes to how things work

44%

Major changes to how things work

19%

She would tear down the system completely

21%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

(If Harris major/minor change or tear down the system) Do you think the changes that Kamala Harris would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

IF GOOD/BAD: Is that very or somewhat?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very good for the country

24%

Somewhat good for the country

17%

Somewhat bad for the country

6%

Very bad for the country

28%

Neither good nor bad

9%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

[PREVIOUSLY] Nothing would change

12%

[PREVIOUSLY] Don’t know/Refused

3%

(Without combination) (If Harris major/minor change or tear down the system) Do you think the changes that Kamala Harris would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

IF GOOD/BAD: Is that very or somewhat?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

480

Very good for the country

29%

Somewhat good for the country

20%

Somewhat bad for the country

7%

Very bad for the country

33%

Neither good nor bad

10%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

For each of the following, please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well:

Will bring about the right kind of change

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very well

32%

Somewhat well

20%

Not too well

9%

Not at all well

37%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

Can unify the country

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very well

23%

Somewhat well

25%

Not too well

12%

Not at all well

39%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

Cares about people like you

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very well

34%

Somewhat well

18%

Not too well

11%

Not at all well

33%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

Is qualified

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very well

42%

Somewhat well

15%

Not too well

9%

Not at all well

34%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

Flip-flops on issues that matter

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very well

31%

Somewhat well

20%

Not too well

16%

Not at all well

27%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

6%

Is a strong leader

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very well

35%

Somewhat well

16%

Not too well

10%

Not at all well

36%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

For each of the following, please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well:

Will bring about the right kind of change

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very well

32%

Somewhat well

14%

Not too well

10%

Not at all well

42%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

Can unify the country

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very well

20%

Somewhat well

19%

Not too well

12%

Not at all well

48%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

Cares about people like you

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very well

32%

Somewhat well

15%

Not too well

10%

Not at all well

43%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

Is qualified

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very well

37%

Somewhat well

14%

Not too well

8%

Not at all well

41%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

Flip-flops on issues that matter

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very well

31%

Somewhat well

18%

Not too well

12%

Not at all well

36%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

Is a strong leader

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very well

42%

Somewhat well

16%

Not too well

10%

Not at all well

32%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November?

[IF NEEDED: If you had to pick just one.]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

[VOL] The economy (including jobs and the stock market)

21%

[VOL] Inflation and the cost of living

5%

[VOL] Abortion

16%

[VOL] Immigration

12%

[VOL] Crime

0%

[VOL] Gun policies

<1%

[VOL] Health care

2%

[VOL] Education

<1%

[VOL] Foreign policy

5%

[VOL] Russia/the war in Ukraine

0%

[VOL] China

0%

[VOL] Climate change

<1%

[VOL] The state of democracy/corruption

6%

[VOL] Election integrity

<.5%

[VOL] Equality/inequality

5%

[VOL] Polarization/division

3%

[VOL] Racism/racial issues

<1%

[VOL] Dislike of opposing candidate

3%

[VOL] Character/competence of candidate

7%

[VOL] The Middle East/Israel/Palestinians

<1%

[VOL] Taxes

<1%

[VOL] Student loans

<.5%

[VOL] Other (specify)

7%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

Which candidate do you think would do a better job of handling the issue you think is most important?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

49%

Donald Trump, the Republican

46%

[VOL] Neither candidate

2%

[VOL] Someone else; specify

1%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following:

The economy

[IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Kamala Harris

44%

Donald Trump

54%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

2%

Abortion

[IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Kamala Harris

57%

Donald Trump

39%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

4%

Immigration

[IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Kamala Harris

45%

Donald Trump

52%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

3%

Democracy

[IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Kamala Harris

53%

Donald Trump

44%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

3%

What single news source do you turn to most often?

This could include a social media site or a news site.

[IF NEEDED: If you had to pick just one.]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

[VOL] Fox News

17%

[VOL] CNN

11%

[VOL] MSNBC

5%

[VOL] Public Radio/NPR/PBS

4%

[VOL] Talk radio/conservative personality

<.5%

[VOL] National television networks, like CBS, NBC or ABC

13%

[VOL] Local broadcast news (includes non-talk, non-public local radio)

5%

[VOL] National print or online news organizations, like The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal

8%

[VOL] Local print or online news organizations

<.5%

[VOL] Social media

16%

[VOL] Friends and family

<.5%

[VOL] International news sources (such as the BBC, Al Jazeera and The Guardian)

3%

[VOL] Aggregation sites (such as Bing, Google, Yahoo News or Apple News)

2%

[VOL] Conservative news sites

2%

[VOL] Newsmax

3%

[VOL] Liberal news sites (Such as Mother Jones and Occupy Democrats)

<1%

[VOL] Doesn’t consume news

1%

[VOL] Other (includes no preference and the internet)

7%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

How often, if ever, do you use social media, such as Facebook, Instagram, TikTok or others?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Often

53%

Sometimes

20%

Rarely

13%

Never

13%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

(If social media user) How often, if ever, do you use TikTok?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Often

18%

Sometimes

12%

Rarely

13%

Never

43%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

[PREVIOUSLY] Never use social media

13%

[PREVIOUSLY] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

(Without combination) (If social media user) How often, if ever, do you use TikTok?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

486

Often

21%

Sometimes

14%

Rarely

15%

Never

50%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

And just a few more questions for demographic purposes...

Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate or conservative?

[FOLLOW UP: (If liberal or conservative) Is that very or somewhat?]

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Very liberal

9%

Somewhat liberal

12%

Moderate

34%

Somewhat conservative

17%

Very conservative

21%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

5%

Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes?

[IF NEEDED: I just want to remind you that you are completely anonymous. We only use this information in aggregate form to ensure we have a representat

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Under $25,000

12%

At least $25,000 but under $50,000

15%

At least $50,000 but under $100,000

27%

At least $100,000 but under $200,000

27%

$200,000 or more

12%

[VOL] Refused

7%

Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Catholic

11%

Protestant (Christian)

36%

Mormon (LDS)

<1%

Jewish

<1%

Muslim

<.5%

[VOL] Christian (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)

18%

[VOL] Greek/Russian Orthodox

0%

Some other religion (specify)

3%

No religious affiliation

28%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Yes

39%

No

21%

[PREVIOUSLY] Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, no religious affiliation or refused

40%

[VOL] Refused

<1%

(Without combination) (If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

338

Yes

64%

No

35%

[VOL] Refused

1%

Would you be open to commenting on the issues in this survey and be interested in being contacted by a reporter?

Date:

Aug. 9-14, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

558

Yes

33%

No

67%

Party ID is self-identified party, without leaners; independents include only self-identified independents.

Gender is self-reported if the respondent completed the full questionnaire; otherwise, it is based on the interviewer’s determination. If neither are available, it is as reported on the voter file.

Neighborhood type is a New York Times classification based on each voter’s address. Voters within a metropolitan area’s central city are classified as living in a city. Voters living in a metropolitan area but outside the central city are considered suburban if they live in a census-designated urban area. All other voters — those living in nonmetropolitan areas, and those living in non-urbanized parts of metropolitan areas outside the central city — are classified as living in small towns or rural areas.

How This Poll Was Conducted

Here are the key things to know about these Times/Siena polls:

• Interviewers spoke with 677 registered voters in Arizona from Aug. 8 to 15; 661 registered voters in Georgia and 655 registered voters in North Carolina from Aug. 9 to 14; and 677 registered voters in Nevada from Aug. 12 to 15.

• Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. More than 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for these polls.

• Voters are selected for Times/Siena surveys from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For these polls, interviewers placed more than 276,000 calls to nearly 183,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• The margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points across the four states, plus or minus 4.1 percentage points in Arizona and Georgia, and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in Nevada and North Carolina. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College polls were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones in Arizona from Aug. 8 to 15, 2024; in Georgia and North Carolina from Aug. 9 to 14, 2024; and in Nevada from Aug. 12 to 15, 2024. In all, 2,670 registered voters were interviewed. When all states are joined together, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 2.2 percentage points for the likely electorate.

The margin of sampling error among registered voters for each state poll is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points in Arizona and Georgia, and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in Nevada and North Carolina. Among the likely electorate, it is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, and plus or minus 4.2 points in North Carolina.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

The L2 voter file for each state was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and homeownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate, based on prior Times/Siena polls, were calculated for each stratum. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Fielding

The samples for each state were stratified by political party, race and region and were fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida, and the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 96 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 13 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 12 percent of weighted interviews.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education, race or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available in the state, else classification based on participation in partisan primaries if available in the state, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model)

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• State region (NYT classifications)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• History of voting in the 2020 presidential primary, in North Carolina (L2)

• Major party registration or participation in party primary, in Arizona (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Census tract educational attainment, in Arizona and Nevada

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote. Four-fifths of the final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.2 for registered voters and 1.35 for the likely electorate in Arizona, 1.18 for registered voters and 1.35 for the likely electorate in Georgia,1.22 for registered voters and 1.37 for the likely electorate in Nevada, and 1.18 for registered voters and 1.19 for likely voters in North Carolina.

For the sample of completed interviews, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.6 points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.8 points for the likely electorate in Arizona, plus or minus 4.7 points for registered voters and plus or minus 5.1 points for the likely electorate in Georgia, plus or minus 4.6 points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.8 points for the likely electorate in Nevada, plus or minus 4.7 points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.7 points for the likely electorate in North Carolina.

The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.24 for registered voters and 1.35 for the likely electorate in Arizona, 1.22 for registered voters and 1.45 for the likely electorate in Georgia, 1.24 for registered voters and 1.35 for the likely electorate in Nevada, and 1.28 for registered voters and 1.28 for the likely electorate in North Carolina.

Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.

Composition of the Sample

Group

Unweighted All R.V.s

Weighted All R.V.s

Weighted Likely Electorate

N

Gender

Men

45%

46%

46%

295

Women

54

52

53

352

Age

18 to 29

15%

18%

14%

98

30 to 44

21

22

21

135

45 to 64

36

31

33

235

65 and older

25

25

28

165

Education

High school

17%

29%

27%

112

Some college

34

33

32

223

College

26

24

25

171

Post-graduate

22

14

15

147

Home Ownership (L2 Model)

Likely renter

17%

19%

16%

112

Likely homeowner

59

59

63

389

Unknown

24

22

20

154

Marital Status (L2 Model)

Married

56%

54%

60%

367

Unknown

44

46

40

288

Party (Self-Reported)

Democrat

30%

30%

30%

195

Republican

29

30

32

192

Independent

34

33

32

224

Party (Based on L2 Data)

Democrat

32%

32%

33%

210

Republican

31

31

33

200

Other

37

38

35

245

Race (L2 Model)

White

67%

65%

68%

442

Hispanic

4

4

3

28

Black

19

19

18

123

Asian

1

1

1

8

Other

2

2

1

13

Race (L2 Model)

White

67%

65%

68%

442

Nonwhite

27

27

25

177

State Region

East

29%

29%

29%

187

Charlotte Suburbs

11

11

11

69

Mecklenburg

11

10

10

70

Piedmont Triad

13

13

13

84

Raleigh-Durham

19

19

19

124

Turnout History (Based on L2 Data)

Voted in last midterm and in a primary

49%

43%

49%

320

Voted in last two midterms

19

20

22

124

Voted in last general, no midterm

13

15

14

88

Did not vote in last general or midterm

6

7

4

38

New registrant

13

14

10

85
Toplines: August 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters in North Carolina (2024)

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