Latest articles
So, what's a P-Value?
P-values are really important in scientific research. But do scientists even know what they are?
August 22, 2024
Chicago's young voters talk 2024 presidential election at the DNC
538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich speaks with three young voters from Chicago as the 2024 Democratic National Convention takes place.
August 21, 2024
Yes, party conventions matter
Most viewers are partisans, but the events help energize the party bases.
August 21, 2024
The Obamas dominate night 2 of the DNC | 538 Politics Podcast
The crew reacts to night two of the Democratic National Convention
August 21, 2024
Harris is starting to rebuild the Biden coalition
But she still lags the party’s 2020 performance among key demographic groups.
August 20, 2024
Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke discusses Harris' policy positions, or the lack thereof, with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley, and whether this could be an advantage for her.
August 19, 2024
How much influence does Harris have on Biden's policies? | 538 Politics Podcast
538 senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks to Galen Druke about how Kamala Harris is set to establish her own presence outside of President Joe Biden as the 2024 DNC begins.
August 19, 2024
Who are presidential delegates and what are their roles?
538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich explains the role of delegates and how they're selected as the 2024 DNC kicks off in Chicago.
August 19, 2024
5 primaries to watch in Florida and Alaska
Gaetz faces a McCarthy-backed challenger in the Sunshine State.
August 19, 2024
Greetings from the 2024 DNC in Chicago
538 looks at the history of political conventions in the Windy City.
August 19, 2024
Greetings from the 2024 DNC in Chicago
538’s Nathaniel Rakich takes a look at the history of political conventions in the Windy City.
August 19, 2024
How do voters pick a candidate? | 538 Politics Podcast
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discusses what questions voters consider when going to the polls.
August 16, 2024
How important is the border for Latino voters? | 538 Politics Podcast
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke talk about the importance of Vice President Kamala Harris clarifying her stance on issues like immigration.
August 16, 2024
Democratic support among Latino voters has shifted since Biden dropped out
538's Galen Druke talks to Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, about a possible shift in Latino voters toward Vice President Kamala Harris.
August 16, 2024
Can Harris win back Biden's Israel-Gaza critics?
Harris has a challenge, and an opportunity, to define her stance on the war.
August 16, 2024
JD Vance is more unpopular than Sarah Palin
Vance is one of the least popular vice-presidential picks this century.
August 15, 2024
Will Harris's late start help or hurt her in the general election?
She isn't the first to secure a presidential nomination this close to November.
August 13, 2024
Do voters think of Harris as a DEI candidate? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik discuss polling around the belief that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris may be a DEI candidate.
August 13, 2024
What does poll denialism reveal? | 538 Politics Podcast
New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and 538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich play another round of "Good or Bad Use of Polling?"
August 13, 2024
Trump’s line of attack for the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk with New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about former President Donald Trump’s latest strategy to win votes.
August 13, 2024
6 primaries to watch in Minnesota and Wisconsin
Rep. Ilhan Omar is the latest Squad member to face a serious challenger.
August 12, 2024
Americans don't like Project 2025
Plus, polls on vaccines, the child tax credit and which party is more "weird."
August 9, 2024
Why immigration is a better issue for Trump than it was in 2020
Public opinion about immigration has swung to the right since Biden took office.
August 8, 2024
A look at Gov. Tim Walz’s political history | 538 Politics Podcast
Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks with Galen Druke about VP pick Walz’s progressive record as governor.
August 7, 2024
Tim Walz’s appeal in the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast
The 538 team reacts to Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris’s VP pick and discusses Tim Walz’s appeal in the 2024 election.
August 7, 2024
The challenges ahead for the Harris-Walz campaign | 538 Politics Podcast
ABC News Politics Reporter Brittany Shepherd discusses the Harris-Walz campaign and its challenges.
August 7, 2024
Can Harris ride memes all the way to the White House?
Her popularity on social media mirrors her rise in the polls.
August 7, 2024
Tim Walz was the safe VP pick
But he probably won't give Harris an electoral boost.
August 6, 2024
How would a general election debate impact the presidential campaign?
ABC News politics reporter Brittany Shepherd discusses how a presidential debate could benefit Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris.
August 6, 2024
How has reaction to Russian prisoner swap impacted the Biden-Harris administration?
Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks with Galen Druke about how the latest Russian prisoner swap impacted the popularity of the current administration and Kamala Harris.
August 6, 2024
What the polls say about a Harris vs. Trump matchup
The 538 team discusses the latest polling and how the election is looking like a toss-up.
August 6, 2024
18 primaries to watch in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas
Rep. Cori Bush faces a major challenge in her St. Louis-based seat.
August 5, 2024
Harris and Trump are tied in 538’s new polling averages
Harris is doing noticeably better than Biden was before he dropped out.
August 2, 2024
What is civic respect? | 538 Politics Podcast
Political science professors Elizabeth Theiss-Morse and Jeff Spinner-Halev talk about sweeping claims and how they relate to civic respect.
August 1, 2024
How people can respectfully disagree over politics
Political science professor Jeff Spinner-Halev discusses the difference between civic respect toward a person versus their belief.
August 1, 2024
How the political parties got so far apart
Political science professors Elizabeth Theiss-Morse and Jeff Spinner-Halev discuss with Galen Druke how political parties have sorted over time.
August 1, 2024
How will sexism impact Harris's presidential campaign?
She's already responding to a slew of gendered and racist attacks.
August 1, 2024
The potential of Tim Walz as the Harris VP pick
ABC News politics reporter Brittany Shepherd joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the Minnesota governor as the potential running mate for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
July 31, 2024
Could Josh Shapiro be the Harris VP pick? | 538 Politics Podcast
The Pennsylvania governor is a popular and charismatic politician and is on the shortlist for vice president.
July 31, 2024
Does the VP pick impact a presidential candidate’s support? | 538 Politics Podcast
The 538 team discusses who is on the shortlist for vice president for the Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
July 31, 2024
How Harris’ border record could impact her campaign message | 538 Politics Podcast
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Geoffrey Skelley about what might be in store for Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign.
July 26, 2024
Can Harris rally the Obama coalition in this election? | 538 Politics Podcast
Senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley joins the 538 Politics podcast to talk about what has changed and what hasn’t in the 2024 presidential race.
July 26, 2024
Does enthusiasm for candidates matter in this presidential race?
In the span of just two days, Vice President Kamala Harris consolidated support within the Democratic Party and is well on her way to securing the Democratic nomination.
July 26, 2024
UPDATED Aug. 30, 2024, at 5:40 PM
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Harris wins 57 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 43 times out of 100.
There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
Harris
Trump
No winner
+
simulations
Harris wins
Trump wins
Electoral vote margin
What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?
We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
| Dates | Pollster Sponsor | 538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 25-29 | No rating | Harris 50% 44% Trump | Harris +6 | |
| Aug. 26-28 | 2.3 | Harris 51% 48% Trump | Harris +3 | |
| Aug. 24-28 | No rating | Harris 47% 45% Trump | Harris +2 | |
| Aug. 25-28 | 2.9 | Harris 48% 43% Trump | Harris +5 | |
| Aug. 23-28 | 1.6 | Harris 51% 45% Trump | Harris +6 | |
| Aug. 23-28 | 1.6 | Harris 48% 41% Trump | Harris +7 | |
| Aug. 21-28 | 2.8 | Harris 44% 40% Trump | Harris +4 | |
| Aug. 25-27 | 2.9 | Harris 47% 45% Trump | Harris +2 | |
| Aug. 26-27 | Republican-funded | No rating | Harris 49% 47% Trump | Harris +2 |
| Aug. 23-27 | 2.8 | Harris 49% 47% Trump | Harris +2 |
Dates
Pollster
Sponsor
538 Pollster Rating
Result
Net result
50%
44%
Harris +6
51%
48%
Harris +3
47%
45%
Harris +2
48%
43%
Harris +5
51%
45%
Harris +6
48%
41%
Harris +7
47%
45%
Harris +2
49%
47%
Harris +2
49%
47%
Harris +2
Latest updates
LAST UPDATED Aug. 26
On Friday, Aug. 23, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he was suspending his campaign for president and endorsed former President Donald Trump. The endorsem*nt from Kennedy, at 4 percent in the popular vote in our forecast, has the ability to give Trump a crucial boost in battleground states. Our model forecast a 4-in-10 chance that Kennedy’s vote share in November would be larger than the margin for either Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris in at least one decisive state. Both candidates will likely welcome that probability going to zero.
It is difficult, however, to provide a quick analysis of RFK’s impact on the race. On the one hand, his impact on our polling average is small and Kennedy’s voters mostly otherwise look like strong partisans. But it is not so easy for a forecasting model to react to such a sharp change in the race, mainly because it needs data (from the polls) to do so. Although you and I know that Kennedy endorsed Trump, which should in theory help him a little, the model does not have access to that information until it sees polling data showing such a shift. Programming the model a different way would require us to speculate, mostly with ad hoc rationalization, about the future trajectory of the race. We prefer to leave such forecasting to the model. Readers should expect our model to react to this news over the next week, if Kennedy’s endorsem*nt of Trump does in fact change the polls.
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
—G. Elliott Morris
How has the forecast changed over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
Who’s favored to win each state?
Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.
Hover over a state to see its forecast
State Name
XX EVs
Chance of a win
XX out of 100 Harris win
XX out of 100 Trump win
Solid D
≥98 in 100%
Likely D
≥75 in 100%
Lean D
≥60 in 100%
Toss-up
Both <60 in 100%
Lean R
≥60 in 100%
Likely R
≥75 in 100%
Solid R
≥98 in 100%
Chance of a win based on 538’s forecast
Likeliest tipping-point states
Maine and Nebraska’s congressional districts are shown separately because those states split their Electoral College votes, allotting two to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each district.
What are the closest races?
Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
Median
95% of outcomes fall in this range
State ▲ ▼
Forecasted margin of victory ▲ ▼
Vote share
VPI ▲ ▼
Tipping point ▲ ▼
State ▲ ▼
Forecasted margin of victory ▲ ▼
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
What does the path to 270 look like?
Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.
Zoom out
How the popular vote translates into electoral votes
This graph shows the national popular vote margin and Electoral College margin in every model simulation. It shows you how often a candidate wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
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✓
What do the polls or fundamentals alone say?
Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows how we get from the polls today to a forecast for Election Day.
Median
95% of outcomes fall in this range
Margin of victory
Polling averages
Polling averages
Polling average
The state of public opinion today, according only to 538’s average of national polls.
Adjusted polling average
The national polling average adjusted for results of state polls and the effects of party conventions.
Forecast components
Weight
Forecast of polling average on Election Day
The adjusted polling average with uncertainty intervals that account for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
00
Fundamentals-only forecast
What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.
00
Full forecast
Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on a weighted average of the polls and fundamentals using the weights above. This accounts for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Forecast components may not exactly add up to full forecast because of rounding and random sampling. (When combining the components, we take a random sample of simulations from each, and they may not exactly match the full sample of simulations.)
Unusual and not-so-unusual scenarios
The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.
| Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 25 out of 100 |
| Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 7 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 31 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 35 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the national popular vote | 69 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the national popular vote | 31 out of 100 |
| Harris wins a majority of the national popular vote | 69 out of 100 |
| Trump wins a majority of the national popular vote | 31 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 19 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 4 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | 13 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | <1 out of 100 |
| No candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes | <1 out of 100 |
| Every state votes for the same party that it did in 2020 | <1 out of 100 |
| Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state) | 5 out of 100 |
| Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates | <1 out of 100 |
| Harris wins at least one state Biden didn't win in 2020 | 58 out of 100 |
| Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020 | 75 out of 100 |
Credits
Forecast model
Quantitative editing
Content editing
Project management
Sources: American National Election Studies, The American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara, Ballotpedia, Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, Federal Election Commission, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Our Campaigns, polls, The Roper Center, state election websites, U.S. Census Bureau, University of Michigan Survey Research Center, VoteSmart
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